European defence spending is rising sharply. SIPRI’s latest military expenditure data says global military spending reached $2.887 trillion in 2025, with Europe up 14 percent and Asia and Oceania also surging. The Atlantic Council’s tracker similarly notes faster allied spending growth ahead of the next NATO summit.
Budgets are the start, not the answer
Higher spending is politically easier to announce than useful capability is to build. Europe needs ammunition, air defence, drones, logistics, cyber resilience, transport, maintenance, interoperable command systems and industrial capacity. These are not created by percentage targets alone.
The domestic politics are also delicate. If voters hear only that defence must rise while housing, health, pensions and energy bills remain strained, the security argument can become a welfare argument. Public support depends on showing that new spending is necessary, efficient and not simply captured by procurement inertia.
The questions that matter
- Are European countries buying together, or duplicating expensive systems?
- Can defence industries scale production fast enough?
- Will spending fix readiness and stockpiles, not just fund prestige projects?
- Can governments explain the trade-offs without treating citizens as obstacles?
Europe has a genuine security problem. Russia’s war in Ukraine, uncertainty about US commitments and pressure on critical infrastructure all make a stronger European pillar rational. But rational does not mean automatically trusted.
The coming test is capability per euro. If the public sees better security, clearer deterrence and stronger resilience, bigger budgets may hold. If the public sees only rising totals and familiar domestic scarcity, the political mandate will thin quickly.
