澳航停飞上海，今年中国出境游很不乐观 | Qantas suspending flights to Shanghai suggests a bleak outlook for China tourism this year

暑期未至，旅游人的心悬了起来。

01

五一之后，暑期在招手。

这两天，我和几个久违的外航老朋友聚会，聊到行业，大家很快达成一个共识，如果一定要选一个中国城市开航/复航——那就是上海。

理想很丰满，现实很骨感。

魔都上海也有被“看走眼”的时候，昨天，澳洲航空以“国内出境游需求低迷”为由，宣布将从今年 7 月 28 日起暂停飞往上海的航班。

值得一提的是，九个月前，这家澳大利亚旗舰航空公司刚刚恢复了从悉尼出发的航班服务，希望疫情后中国出境游产业能出现反弹。

这家公司表示，上海航线上的澳航飞机将改道飞往亚洲其他需求更高或有新旅游机会的目的地。

什么目的地？

澳洲航空称从 10 月底开始开通从澳大利亚布里斯班飞往菲律宾马尼拉的新航线，并增加飞往新加坡的航班，还将增加从悉尼飞往印度班加罗尔的航班频次。

言外之意，上海航线还不如菲律宾、印度、新加坡航线赚钱。

停航日期也值得玩味，7月28日，暑期刚刚过半，原本火爆的亲子出行市场，澳航不要了？

不得不说，开航9个月就停航，还选在这个时间节点，属实有点意味深长。

澳航虽然留了个“活话”，称将继续密切关注澳中市场，并在需求恢复后返回上海，但我们都知道，别看他怎么说，要看他怎么做。

暑期旺季拔腿就走，还会在秋冬回来接盘？中国大陆再见到澳洲航空怕是要等段时间了。

不仅澳航，美国达美航空近期也取消了洛杉矶-上海浦东的复航计划。根据预定系统显示，达美在2025年3月30日之前都不会复航。

航空公司壮士断腕，再看看酒店业呢？好像也是这样。

最近这段时间，我身边的海外奢华酒店代理似乎都在互相询问同一个问题：今年暑期，为什么没人下单了？

在很多酒店代理的观念里，五一过后，原本是无缝衔接的暑期收客旺季，但今年我在一个海岛酒店同业群里，看到的却是一片鬼哭狼嚎：

“巴厘岛以前不怎么合作的地接都找来了，主动给返佣，都说没单子。”

“塞班刚有点起色，就有人来卷价格了。”

“最近真的太差了，从上个月开始就不正常，啥时候连马尔代夫也收不到客人了。”

原来紧张这种情绪，真的是会蔓延的。

一个深耕酒店代理十多年的朋友A姐和我小窗私聊时，每个字都流露着提心吊胆，“我做这行这么多年了，从来没有说五一刚过完，大家一起叫惨的……”

暑期未至，旅游人的心已经悬了起来。

02

上海，是国内出境游的晴雨表，也是“全村的希望”，北京、广州相比之下都差点意思。

去年年底，一家欧洲航司的负责人曾和我直言，“为什么复航不开北京？看看使馆那边收到寥寥无几的签证申请就能猜个大概，复航也是赔钱……现在北美航线那么赚钱，飞机肯定紧着那边用了。”

朋友一语成谶，半年后，国内旅游业稳步复苏，时不时有网红城市出来冒头吸睛，但出境游一直处于从谷底缓慢爬升的状态。

其中缘由不难解释，据我去年至今多次出国观察，以往航空公司保底的“旅游团队游客”确实消失了。

这一点在文旅部发布的《2023年第四季度全国旅行社统计调查报告》中亦可见端倪：

去年第四季度，出境旅游市场人次所占旅游市场总人次份额仅为5%，而疫情前2019年四季度，出境旅游市场人次所占旅游市场总人次份额为22%，断崖式下降17%。

同时，去年第四季度，出境组织人天所占旅游市场人天份额为10%，疫情2019年四季度，出境组织人天所占旅游市场人天份额为33%，差距更大。

团队客人消失了，尤其在以往传统跟团游目的地欧洲、美洲、澳洲航线上体现得尤为明显。

似乎就是那么一瞬间，中国人不喜欢跟团了。

没有了团队客人，国际航线的航司很愁，毕竟单凭散客FIT客人很难填满宽体客机的座位。

怎么办？只能降价再降价，打一场你死我活的客源争夺战。

所以，我们看到澳洲航线陷入了极度“内卷”的价格战，近期澳洲飞往中国多地之间的航线价格不乏1000元-2000元之间的低价，这样的机票价格一夜回到疫情前，消费者喜上眉梢，航司的痛断肝肠却无人知晓。

另以5月30日携程搜索结果为例，澳洲航空比竞争对手东航足足低了1500元，售价上不去，澳航用脚投票就不难理解了。

值得注意的是，国际机票大幅降级也并未带来出境游客数量的显著提升。

据澳大利亚旅游与交通论坛首席执行官玛吉·奥斯蒙德披露：“自边境重新开放以来，尽管航空运力有所增加，但中国游客返回澳大利亚的速度仍然缓慢。”

她说，中国现在是澳大利亚第四大国际游客来源国，今年3月份的入境游客量仅为2019年3月疫情前水平的47%。

而2020年之前，中国是澳大利亚最大的入境游客来源国，每年来澳的中国游客数量超过140万人次。

事实上，当下中国人出游讲究“性价比”的趋势依然很明显。

从今年五一来看，全国国内旅游出游人次高达2.95亿，同比增长7.6%；总消费额更是达到了1,668.9亿元，同比增长12.7%。

然而，当我们深入剖析这些数据时，发现人均消费约为566元，仅为2019年的94%。

若按日均消费计算，今年五 一的人均花费更是仅为2019年的75%，这个数字甚至低于2017和2018年。

这背后反映出，尽管出游人数在增加，但人们的消费观念正在变得更加理性，人均消费在明显减少。

经济下行时期，我们的口袋往往比嘴巴更诚实。人们可以高谈阔论自己的财富与实力，但真正的消费行为却受制于实际的经济状况。

澳洲航空停航上海，奢华酒店代理叫苦连天，暑期旅游人的难或许才刚刚开始。

文章版权归旅界所有：澳航停飞上海背后：今年出境游很不乐观

Summer hasn’t arrived yet, but the hearts of travelers are already hanging in suspense. After May Day, summer beckons. These past few days, I met up with some old friends from international airlines, and as we discussed the industry, we quickly reached a consensus: if there must be a choice for launching or resuming flights to a Chinese city, it would be Shanghai.

Ideals are lofty, but reality is stark.

Even the cosmopolitan Shanghai has its moments of misjudgment. Yesterday, Qantas Airways announced the suspension of its flights to Shanghai starting from July 28th, citing a downturn in domestic outbound tourism demand.

It’s worth mentioning that just nine months ago, this Australian flagship airline had only just resumed flights departing from Sydney, hoping for a rebound in Chinese outbound tourism post-pandemic.

The company stated that Qantas planes on the Shanghai route would be redirected to other destinations in Asia with higher demand or new tourism opportunities.

Which destinations? Qantas announced the launch of a new route from Brisbane, Australia to Manila, Philippines starting from late October, along with increased flights to Singapore, and added frequencies from Sydney to Bengaluru, India.

Implicit in their statement is the suggestion that the Shanghai route is less profitable compared to those to the Philippines, India, and Singapore.

The choice of the cessation date is also intriguing. July 28th, just past the midpoint of summer, a time when the family travel market is typically bustling—Qantas isn’t interested?

One can’t help but ponder the significance of suspending flights just nine months after starting them, especially at this particular juncture.

Though Qantas left a “live word,” stating they would continue to closely monitor the Australia-China market and return to Shanghai when demand recovers, we all know actions speak louder than words.

Will they leave during the peak summer season and return to pick up the pieces in autumn and winter? It might be a while before mainland China sees Qantas again.

And it’s not just Qantas—recently, Delta Air Lines of the United States also canceled its plans to resume flights from Los Angeles to Shanghai Pudong. According to booking systems, Delta won’t resume these flights until March 30th, 2025, at the earliest.

Airlines are taking drastic measures. How about the hotel industry? Seems like a similar story.

In recent times, luxury hotel agents around me seem to be asking each other the same question: why aren’t people booking for this summer?

In the minds of many hotel agents, the period after May Day is supposed to seamlessly transition into the peak summer season for receiving guests. But what I’ve observed in a hotel industry group for island resorts is nothing short of lamentation:

“Even the local operators that used to be less cooperative in Bali are reaching out, offering commissions, but they say there are no bookings.”

“Just as Saipan was showing signs of recovery, someone came in to undercut prices.”

“It’s been really bad lately, abnormal since last month. When even the Maldives can’t attract guests, you know it’s bad.”

Originally tense emotions can indeed spread. A friend, A, who has been deeply involved in hotel agency work for over a decade, expressed her anxiety to me in private chats: “I’ve been in this industry for so many years, and never have we collectively bemoaned our fate just after May Day…”

Summer hasn’t arrived yet, but the hearts of travelers are already hanging in suspense.

Shanghai serves as a barometer for outbound tourism in China, as well as the “hope of the whole village”. Compared to Beijing and Guangzhou, it stands out.

At the end of last year, the head of a European airline once told me, “Why not resume flights to Beijing? Just look at the few visa applications received by the embassy, you can guess roughly. Resuming flights is also losing money… With the North American routes making so much profit now, planes are definitely being allocated there.”

His words turned out to be prophetic. Half a year later, the domestic tourism industry is steadily recovering, with occasional standout cities emerging to attract attention. However, outbound tourism has been slowly climbing from its trough.

The reasons behind this are not hard to explain. Based on my observations from multiple trips abroad since last year, the previously guaranteed “tour group tourists” from airlines have indeed disappeared.

This trend is evident in the statistical report on national travel agencies for the fourth quarter of 2023 released by the Ministry of Culture and Tourism:

In the fourth quarter of last year, the share of outbound tourism market visits in the total tourism market visits was only 5%, while before the epidemic in the fourth quarter of 2019, the share was 22%, a sharp decline of 17%.

At the same time, in the fourth quarter of last year, the share of person-days organized for outbound travel in the total person-days of the tourism market was 10%, compared to 33% in the fourth quarter of 2019, indicating an even greater gap.

Group tourists have disappeared, especially on traditional group tour routes to Europe, the Americas, and Australia. It seems that in just a moment, Chinese people no longer prefer group tours.

Without group tourists, airlines operating international routes are in a bind since it’s difficult to fill wide-body aircraft seats with individual FIT customers alone.

What to do? They can only resort to lowering prices again and again, engaging in a life-and-death struggle for customers.

Thus, we see Australian routes embroiled in an intense price war. Recently, prices for flights between Australia and various cities in China have seen lows between 1000 and 2000 yuan. Such ticket prices have returned overnight to pre-pandemic levels, much to the delight of consumers, but the agony of airlines goes unnoticed.

For example, on May 30th, Qantas was 1500 yuan cheaper than its competitor, China Eastern Airlines, according to search results from Ctrip. The reason for the low sales is understandable when you consider that Qantas voted with its feet by lowering prices.

It’s worth noting that the substantial reduction in international airfare has not led to a significant increase in outbound tourists.

According to Maggie Osmond, CEO of the Australian Tourism and Transport Forum, “Since the border reopened, although air capacity has increased, the return of Chinese tourists to Australia remains slow.”

She said that China is now Australia’s fourth-largest source of international tourists, with inbound tourist numbers in March this year only at 47% of the pre-pandemic level of March 2019.

Before 2020, China was Australia’s largest source of inbound tourists, with over 1.4 million Chinese tourists visiting Australia annually.

In fact, the current trend among Chinese travelers still emphasizes “value for money”.

Looking at this year’s May Day holiday, domestic travel reached a staggering 295 million trips, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%. Total consumer spending reached 166.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%.

However, upon closer analysis, we find that per capita spending is only about 566 yuan, just 94% of the level in 2019.

In terms of daily average spending, this year’s May Day per capita expenditure is even only 75% of that in 2019, a figure even lower than in 2017 and 2018.

This reflects that although the number of travelers is increasing, people’s consumption concepts are becoming more rational, with per capita consumption significantly decreasing.

During economic downturns, our wallets often speak more honestly than our mouths. People can boast about their wealth and strength, but real consumption behavior is constrained by actual economic conditions.

Qantas Airways suspending flights to Shanghai, luxury hotel agents lamenting, the difficulties of summer travel may have just begun.