Across China, homebuyers are refusing to pay mortgages as property developers drag on construction projects, escalating the country’s real estate crisis and risks of bad debt for banks.
中国多地烂尾楼业主不满开发商无法按时交房，拒绝继续还房贷，这可能会引发全国性的房产危机和加重银行的坏账。
Buyers of 35 projects across 22 cities have decided to stop paying mortgages as of July 12 due to project delays and a drop in real estate prices, Citigroup Inc. analysts led by Griffin Chan wrote in a research report distributed on Wednesday.
根据花旗集团的分析师，截至7月12日，跨22座城市的35个烂尾楼盘项目的业主决定停止还房贷。
The payment refusals underscore how the storm engulfing China’s property sector is now affecting the country’s middle class, posing a threat to social stability. Chinese banks already grappling with challenges from liquidity stress among developers now also have to brace for homebuyer defaults.
这个事情反映出来烂尾楼影响了中国中产阶级，并且给威胁社会稳定埋下了隐患。中国银行现在不仅要处理破产房产企业的资产，同时还需要面对购房者无法还款的压力。
Now is “a critical time for social stability,” said Chan, adding that “the forgoing of down payments may bring social instability.”
花旗银行分析师表示这对于社会稳定是一个关键点，因为无法支付房贷会导致社会的不稳定。
A drop in home values hasn’t helped. Average selling prices of properties in nearby projects in 2022 were on average 15% lower than purchase costs in the past three years, according to Citigroup’s research.
房价下跌也没有帮助。根据花旗银行的研究，2022年房价均价比过去三年下跌了15%。
The contagion is spreading to banks. Non-performing loans triggered by the wave of mortgage payment snubs could reach as much as 561 billion yuan ($83 billion), about 1.4% of the outstanding mortgage balance, according to Chan.
断供潮还在蔓延。这波断供潮可能会影响到5610亿人民币（830亿美元）的房贷支付。
While the overall impact on banks will be “manageable,” state lenders including China Construction Bank Corp., Postal Savings Bank of China Co. and Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. may have more exposure to mortgages, and could suffer setbacks amid dampened investor sentiment, Chan wrote.
断供潮对银行影响是“可控的”，这包括国有银行建行、中国邮政银行、工商银行等，但是会让投资者信息受挫。
Postal Savings Bank’s shares fell 3.3% as of 2 p.m. in Shanghai, while ICBC declined 2%. The CSI 300 Banks Index fell as much as 2.7%, the most since April 25.
受该消息影响，中国邮政银行在沪股票下降3.3%，工商银行下降2%。
For Chinese banks, the non-performing loan ratio of mortgages was well below the level of other forms of lending, according to the banking regulator. At China Construction Bank, only 0.2% of its residential mortgages were bad as of December, compared with 1.42% for total loans.
对于中国银行而言，房贷的不良率是低于其他形式贷款的。根据建设银行数据，到去年12月，只有0.2%的房贷不良率，而所有贷款的不良率在1.42%。
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